Preliminary study of the consequences of Paris 2 Conference

Analytical and prospective document, written on the spot, less than one month after the holding of the Paris 2 Conference (where nearly 3 billions USD were advanced to the Lebanese Government at concessionary conditions and with no conditionality).

The document replaces the Paris 2 operation in its effective financial and political context, taking into account of the propaganda and the cosmetic simulations.

It assesses its impacts on public debt, on the Central bank, on commercial banks and on the main macroeconomic aggregates.

It shows, in particular, the amplification effect that the Central Bank realized with the Lebanese banks and that goes far beyond the strict effect of the Paris 2 operation, underlining the particularities of the behaviours of the international and domestic actors: politicians, bankers and financiers. Paris 2 appears in this perspective as a coordinated international political action (mainly French-Saudi) aiming at a financial rescuing that would preserve the status quo in Lebanon and Syria, and achieved in a narrow and very particular political window, coupled, internally, with a taming action, led by the Central bank, of the banking sector, with a major reallocation of financial risks.