Reading of the 2001 budget

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December 2001

The 2001 budget is interesting because it is the first one prepared by Rafik Hariri’s team after his group won the 2000 elections against the faction led by President Lahoud and after the fierce critics against the “Financial Correction Program”. It was presented few weeks before James Wolfenson’s visit to Lebanon and his critics of the economic policies and the beginning of a creeping financial crisis that lasted until the Paris 2 Conference, in November 2002.

The budget includes, in line with the previous political announcements, fiscal cuts (tariffs and Social Security contributions) but its detailed analysis shows the strong continuity with the previous budgets and illustrates the considerable efforts devoted to accounting arrangements and financial acrobatics aiming at hiding the deficit.

 

PDF - 95.7 kb
8 p. (in arabic)

 

Programming and Assessment of the economic impact of the Cultural heritage Project in Jbeil-Byblos

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April 2002

 

  1. Programming of intervention (140 Ko – in english)
  2. Economic impact assessment (100 Ko – in english)

Report written during the second phase of the Cultural Heritage Project, in association with AAA (Atelier d’Architectes Associés) for the CDR and the World Bank.

It includes the programming of the operation (that is presently being implemented) and the evaluation of its impact on the local community and economy.

The financial sector and the crisis of development

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in “Globalization : Towards a Lebanese agenda”, National Human Development Report: Lebanon 2001-2002, UNDP, Beirut

July 2002

 

 

PDF - 154.5 kb
21 p. (in english)
Link : On the UNDP site

Financial risks for a manager of funds in Lebanon

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August 2002

 

The study aims at assessing the types and scales of the risks facing a manager of funds invested on the Lebanese capital market, depending on the available instruments (exchange risk, interest rate risk, liquidity and solvency risks). The different financial and monetary policies are examined with respect to their effects on the reallocation of risks, since the beginning of the nineties.

 

PDF - 651.5 kb
37 p. (in arabic)

An executive order from President Bush blocks the assets of Syrian officials

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May 2004

 

The US President Bush issued on the 11th of March 2004 this « executive order » that, few months before the issuance of the UN Council of Security 1559, sets the regional political stage.

The political and financial mechanisms and effects of this measure are analysed in detail with the dangers they imply on the economic stability of Lebanon.

Until now, this measure does not seem to have been applied, at least visibly.

 

PDF - 56.8 kb
8 p. (in french)

Formulation of a Strategy for Social Development in Lebanon

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Economic and Social Fund for Development (ESFD), currently hosted by the Council for Development and Reconstruction (CDR)

in accordance with the financing agreement between the Government of Lebanon and the European Union

September 2004

 

The report formulates a strategy for social development in Lebanon aimed at orienting the action of the Government in general and that of the Economic and Social Fund for Development (that has been constituted in association with the European Union) in particular.

It includes two parts:

Part I (136 p.) presents the social development strategy. It analyses the relations between the prevailing economic model and the social deficits, it assesses the adequacy of the various social programs, both public and private, and proposes the institutional framework and the main lines of action needed to amend the orientations of the socio-economic model and finally defines a series of indicators for monitoring.

Part 2 (117 p.) aims at mapping the “poverty pockets” and at highlighting the socioeconomic characteristics of the “poor” in Lebanon. For this purpose, a refined spatial index of poverty has been constructed by using quantitative and regularly available measurements of consumption (see figures). Several field studies were carried to refine the knowledge of the characteristics of the “poor”, notably in rural areas and in certain peri-urban neighbourhoods.

GIS maps :

  1. Composite index of poverty
  2. Index with surveyed villages
  3. Intensity of commercial telephone calls
  4. Intensity of residential telephone calls
  5. Density of population
  6. Rate of sewage connections

The Socio-economic impact of replacing the commercial port in Sour by a fishing and touristic port

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May 2005

 

The city of Sour, listed as a UNESCO World Heritage site, includes, since the civil war, an irregular commercial port. The study aims at assessing the benefits and costs of transforming this port so as to preserve and promote the cultural character of the city. The measures needed to mitigate the losses incurred by the affected categories are highlighted.

 

PDF - 138.1 kb
138 pages (in english)

Public Investment Program

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Study realized for the CDR (Council for Development and Reconstruction) in 2005 and 2006
2006

 

Study realized for the CDR (Council for Development and Reconstruction) in 2005 and 2006, under the direction of the author, with Dar el Handasah and IAURIF, in view of rationalizing public investment and current expenditure, in the light of the orientations of the NPMPL.

The study has been presented and discussed in the Parliament but was not yet discussed in the Council of Ministers nor has it been integrated in the so-called “programs” that the Government presented at various international conferences.

 

The study includes four parts:

  1. The “planning vision over 10-15 years” assesses the impact of public expenditure on the Lebanese economy since the early 90’s and sets a detailed methodology for the selection of investments as well as the main options in respect of the provision of public goods and services on the long run (in arabic, in french)
  2. The different options in terms of “Sectoral Policies” are then reviewed on the basis of systematic sectoral and spatial diagnosis and through highlighting the main political, institutional, economic and technical trade-offs (in arabic, in English).
  3. The medium term (5 years) “Investment Program” covering rehabilitation and new equipment, is then deduced on the basis of a quantified evaluation of sectoral and spatial performance and needs (in english).
  4. Then the “Synthesis of the Investment Program” shows the aggregate figures in terms of types of intervention, sectoral and regional allocation. The macroeconomic and fiscal impacts of the program (and not only its financial impact) are quantified as well as that of the main sectoral policies options (in English).

Financing and Political Economy of Higher Education in Lebanon

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study sponsored by the Economic Research Forum

26 December 2009

The common approach to higher education in the MENA countries appears to be based on three assessments: 1) higher education provision is dominated by the public sector; 2) there is a major financing problem and 3) there is an increasing demand

On each of these points, the Lebanese case is different: 1) the private sector historically dominates the education sector; 2) financing of education in general and higher education in particular is exceptionally abundant and 3) no demographic increase is foreseeable: in 2025, the youth population is expected to decrease by -5 % . But the peculiarities of its history and present situation can be valuable in a comparative approach covering several Arab Countries since they shed light on specific factors, trends and options that might still be latent in other cases.

Lebanon is nevertheless facing severe challenges in the field of human capital formation and mobilization that go far beyond problems of financing:

  • In spite of the relative abundance of human and financial resources, growth outcomes are very poor;
  • Investment in human capital is probably excessive and is directly related in a circular causality to migration: the severe outflow of skilled migrants that prevents the domestic accumulation of human capital; and while skilled labour is attracted by emigration, unskilled Lebanese labour faces the competition of large numbers of temporary foreign workers;
  • The Lebanese Government is unable to delineate a strategic vision for education in general and higher education in particular, resulting in the explosion of private higher education and diminishing means, quality and presence for the only public institution. This paper assesses the adequacy, efficiency and equity of higher education financing in Lebanon in both the public and private sector.

The conclusion discusses different approaches and strategies to remedy the challenges of higher education financing in Lebanon, acknowledging that higher education is far more a response to external stimuli than an exogenous lever or even an autonomous field of action.

 

PDF - 530.4 kb
74 p. (in english)

What economic growth model for the next decade ?

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in UNDP Conference on Linking economic growth and social development in Lebanon

January 2000

 

The conference gave the opportunity to explicit the analysis and the diagnosis underlying the “Financial Correction Program” that had been presented few months earlier to the Lebanese Government. The paper tackles in a critical way the theses that were still dominant at that time on the Lebanese economy, correcting certain data and rectifying certain concepts, and explores the available choices in terms of growth models for Lebanon, with respect to its regional environment.

 

PDF - 240 kb
28 p. (in french)